MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, May 19, 2026
We had a winning day on Monday, as Alec Bohm hit a home run, giving us some profit even with Austin Riley and Luis Garcia Jr. losing.
Today, we’re going with Ronald Acuna Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., and Konnor Griffin.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 28-122 (-1.02 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, May 19
Ronald Acuna Jr. Home Run Odds
Ronald Acuna Jr. is making his return from injury tonight. It’s been a slow start to the season, as he’s slashing .252/.362/.378 with two home runs in 152 plate appearances. The good news is that the barrel rate is still decent at 12.2%.
With Acuna’s track record as a hitter with 40+ home run upside, it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. I’m hopping on board while the numbers are still underwhelming because we’re getting a good price at +500 odds at the time of this article.
I like the matchup against Braxton Garrett, whom Acuna has mashed in his career, putting up one homer and a .955 expected slugging percentage in nine plate appearances. Garrett got rocked in his first start of the year, allowing five earned runs in 1.1 innings.
I’m betting that Acuna is going to hit the ground running in his return from injury. With the exploitable matchup vs. Garrett, along with the appealing price, we’ll take a shot on him here. Risk 0.1 units.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. is slashing .302/.374/.487 with seven home runs in 214 plate appearances. The barrel rate looks good at 12.3%, so it’s a nice time to hop on the Witt train.
May has been a great month for May, as he’s slashing .324/.387/.588 with five home runs. After a slow April, it’s clear that Witt has had a power surge this month.
However, we’re getting a great price on him at +650 odds at the time of this article. That’s the kind of longshot price that you want to target on a proven slugger with 30-homer upside like Witt.
Even though Ranger Suarez has been good of late, this isn’t an ace that we need to avoid, especially when the price is so appealing. It’s also worth noting that Witt has crushed lefties this season, putting up a 166 wRC+ against them.
Given these factors, we’ll take a shot with Witt here. Risk 0.1 units.
Konnor Griffin Home Run Odds
Konnor Griffin is an elite prospect who has found his groove. Look deeper than the season-long slash of .262/.317/.396 with three home runs in 164 plate appearances. He’s been much better overall in May, where he’s slashing .310/.359/.483 with one home run in 64 plate appearances.
Griffin has crushed lefties this year, putting up a 137 wRC+ against them, which is great news because he’ll get one tonight in Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals’ left-hander has a 5.84 xERA, so this is a matchup to exploit.
Then, you have to consider the price, as we’re getting Griffin at nearly +700 odds at the time of this article.
With how well Griffin is swinging the bat, coupled with the strong matchup and appealing price, this is a home run prop to target here. Risk 0.1 units.
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