Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Early Odds & Analysis
The AFC Championship has arrived, and it’s never too early to take a closer look at the upcoming matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. It’s an intriguing showdown between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC, but the biggest question is how Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham responds after being thrust into the starting role following Bo Nix’s season-ending injury.
Nix’s injury has predictably caused significant line movement, but has the betting market overreacted? We’re going to dive into this Patriots vs Broncos matchup by focusing on the quarterback play and key defensive matchups. The goal is to help you make a more informed decision when placing your AFC Championship wagers.
So, without further ado, let’s get right into our early Patriots vs Broncos breakdown for the AFC Championship Game.
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Patriots vs Broncos Betting Odds
Before diving into the positional breakdowns, let’s take a look at the line movement, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the line has moved to as of Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, the total has remained relatively steady at . If Nix were healthy, the Broncos would likely be small favorites of one to two points, with a total closer to 43 or 44.
It makes sense for the Patriots to be favored here, even on the road. The real question is whether this number has climbed too high.
Quarterback Breakdown
The Patriots hold a clear advantage at quarterback. Drake Maye has enjoyed a breakout season and has firmly entered the MVP conversation. The second-year starter has completed 72% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. According to advanced metrics, Maye ranks first in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) and Adjusted Expected Points Added per play (EPA).
On the other side, Jarrett Stidham is set to make his first start since January 7, 2023, and just the fourth start of his NFL career. Here’s a look at his previous full starts:
- January 7, 2023 (L 27-14 at Raiders): 20-of-34 (58.8%), 272 yards, 8.0 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT
- December 31, 2023 (W 16-9 vs Chargers): 20-of-32 (62.5%), 224 yards, 7.0 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT
- January 7, 2022 (L 31-13 vs Chiefs): 22-of-36 (61.1%), 219 yards, 6.1 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT
- January 1, 2022 (L 37-34 vs 49ers): 23-of-34 (67.6%), 365 yards, 10.7 Y/A, 3 TD, 2 INT
The good news for Denver is that Stidham is capable of running an NFL offense. This is not a situation where the Broncos are completely overmatched under center, and we shouldn’t expect a total offensive collapse.
The bad news is that Stidham’s teams have scored 16 points or fewer in three of his four career starts. He also lacks the mobility that Bo Nix provides, which could be problematic against a Patriots defense that is playing its best football of the season.
For the Broncos to keep this game competitive, Stidham will need to play mistake-free football while keeping the offense on schedule. That puts even more pressure on the Denver defense to deliver a standout performance.
Patriots vs Broncos Defense
The Patriots defense has been dominant throughout the postseason. They recorded three sacks and four interceptions in their Divisional Round win over the Texans, holding Houston to just 16 points while completely shutting down the run game.
You might argue that C.J. Stroud struggled down the stretch this season, and that’s fair. However, New England followed that performance by stifling Justin Herbert in the AFC Wild Card round.
In the Patriots’ 16-3 win over the Chargers, Herbert was limited to just 151 passing yards at 5.1 yards per attempt. Austin Ekeler and the Chargers’ run game were also kept in check, failing to establish any consistency on the ground.
A major catalyst for this defensive surge has been the return of Christian Barmore. Since coming back in Week 18, Barmore has been a disruptive force along the interior defensive line, highlighted by multiple pressure-filled performances in the playoffs.
On the other side, the Broncos defense has shown signs of vulnerability. In the AFC Wild Card round, Buffalo consistently moved the ball, with Josh Allen throwing for 283 yards and James Cook rushing for 117 yards. The Bills scored 31 points despite turning the ball over multiple times.
While Denver forced five turnovers in that game, that level of takeaway production is difficult to sustain. Turnovers are volatile and often regress, especially against elite quarterbacks. Once again, this is an area where the Patriots appear to hold a meaningful edge.
The Early Lean
The Broncos face an uphill battle. The quarterback disparity between Drake Maye and Jarrett Stidham is significant, but the larger issue may be the recent form of the two defenses. New England has been far more consistent and dominant, while Denver has relied heavily on turnovers to survive.
For the Broncos to pull off the upset, they will likely need to win the turnover battle decisively. That’s a tough bet to make. Even with the Patriots laying 5.5 points, the current line looks fair based on the matchup.
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