Tuesday’s First Four Gameday Guide: March Madness Preview, Picks & Analysis

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 13, 2026, 10:29am

Before the Big Dance begins, we get a series of play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday night in the First Four matchups.

Tuesday’s games begin with a play-in for the No. 16 seed in the Midwest Regional with the Howard Bison (23-10) facing America East Champion UMBC (24-8) at 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV, followed by a play-in for the No. 11 seed between Texas (18-4) and NC State (20-13) at 9:15 p.m.

Howard earned a play-in berth by winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference for the third time in four seasons. The Bison are led by MEAC Player of the Year Bryce Harris and Cedric Taylor III. UMBC has won 12 straight including six straight by double digits. Jah’Likai King and Ace Valentine lead the Retrievers in scoring.

Texas and NC State happened to meet at the beginning of the season in the Maui Invitational. Now the SEC and ACC middleweights will clash for a spot in the Big Dance to face No. 6 BYU. Texas was the very last team on the bubble selected by the committee, while NC State had a better case thanks to conference wins over UNC, Clemson, and Florida St. before finishing the year under new coach Will Wade with a 1-5 stretch.

Tuesday’s First Four Schedule

No. 16 Howard vs. No. 16 UMBC – 6:40 p.m./truTV
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 NC State – 9:15 p.m./truTV

First Four Betting Resources

Tuesday’s First Four Betting Odds

Howard vs. UMBC

Texas vs. NC State

Tuesday’s First Four Previews

Howard vs. UMBC

The UMBC Retrievers are the hotter team in this matchup and they come in as slight favorites after going 17-2 in a conference but their strength of schedule was not very high. Howard is 0-4 in the tournament and UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed back in 2018, but that’s old news in this matchup.

This year, UMBC is 20-2 straight up when listed as favorites, and they’ve covered in six straight. Moving 6-foot-10 Spaniard Jose Roberto Tanchyn into the starting lineup in January has made a big difference for UMBC but the squad still struggles to rebound and Howard could exploit that weakness by crashing the offensive glass. The Retrievers went 17-2 in conference play and 7-6 against non-conference foes.

Howard employs zone pressure that could generate turnovers against certain teams. However, UMBC has three great guards who should be able to handle that pressure. Howard is 5-0 on neutral courts this season and went 11-2 when given a rest advantage. The Bison allowed just 5.8 made 3-pointers per game at 30.4% clip and that could be a deciding factor against a guard-heavy UMBC squad.

Texas vs. NC State

These are two high-scoring teams with mediocre defenses and Texas won the November meeting, 102-97. Texas played in the First Four last year and fell, 86-80, to Xavier. The Longhorns are 7-1 to the Over this season when playing on a rest advantage and 6-1 when playing on 4-plus days of rest.

NC State is a prolific 3-point shooting team with the 10th-best mark (38.8%) in the nation from downtown. The Wolfpack average 83.7 PPG and finished strong with 44.2 PPG in the second half of games, showcasing the talents of senior point guard Quadir Copeland and his sophomore sidekick, Paul McNeil Jr. The Wolfpack are 14-4 to the Over in their last 18 games.

Texas has more of an advantage down low in this matchup, which helped the Longhorns generate 33 free throws in their first meeting in November. The Longhorns are second in the nation in free throws made per game (20.1) and are also a high-scoring second half team (44.3 PPG). Dailyn Swain can do it all for Texas from the wing and center Matas Vokietiatis is a big presence down low.

Tuesday’s First Four Predictions

Howard vs. UMBC

While UMBC has good guards, Howard is the more well-rounded team with a true difference-maker in Bryce Harris. The Bison played a slightly tougher schedule this year and have more recent experience in these tournament spots, so we’ll go with Kenny Blakeney’s squad in a close one, predicting a 70-65 victory for the Bison.

Best Odds: Howard ML

Texas vs. NC State

This is a bad matchup for a Texas team that doesn’t guard the 3-point line well at all. The Longhorns were fortunate to win the early-season matchup due to a season-high 16 made 3-pointers, but giving up 97 points to NC State is a harbinger of what could come. The Wolfpack are deep and experienced in the backcourt and that is generally what gets it done in march. We’ll take NC State to pull off the win, 84-78.

Best Odds: NC State ML

Tuesday’s First Four Best Bet

While we shouldn’t expect the same formula that produced 199 points in the Maui Invitational shootout between Texas and NC State, it’s fair to project an Over on a reasonable total of 158.5 points.

These offenses can exploit the weaknesses of the opposing defense, with Texas using physicality to pound the paint and reach the free throw line, and NC State burning the Longhorns slower guards on the perimeter.

Texas has ramped up the pace of play lately without much improvement defensively and NC State will be right at home in a transition game. Vokietiatis is prone to foul trouble and NC State could move the big man around the floor in various actions to generate advantages and speed up the game.

Best Bet: TEX/NCST Over

Photo Credit: AP/Karl B DeBlaker

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.