Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview (11/7/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview (11/7/21)
The Bills played one of their worst halves of football of the season on Sunday, and they still escaped with a win and a cover against the Dolphins. The Jaguars, meanwhile, seemingly forgot to bring their team on the plane to Seattle as they let Geno Smith throw all over their defense and had no chance from the start of that game. Can Trevor Lawrence help the Jaguars bounce back against an elite Buffalo defense? Or will the Bills get another win on their record as one of the juggernauts in the AFC?
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
- Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record
- Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November
- Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record
- Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog
- Over is 5-0 in the Bills’ last 5 games after 350+ yards in their prior game
- Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record
The Bills’ defense is one of the best, if not the best, in the NFL, and Trevor Lawrence is prone to rookie mistakes. Josh Allen should score at will against a poor Jacksonville defense, while turnovers give the Bills excellent field position in this game. The Bills are 3-2-1 as a favorite this season, just a 60% cover rate, but they have covered by an average of 7.6 points per game, the third-highest total in the NFL. I expect Buffalo to cover the two-touchdown spread with ease, given Jacksonville’s struggles this season.
My predictions: Bills win 34-13, Bills cover, under 49 points
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Date: Sunday, November 7
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: EverBank Field – Buffalo, NY
TV Coverage: CBS
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Live Stream
Where can you watch Bills vs. Jaguars online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Bills vs. Jaguars Free Online Now.
Buffalo Bills: TE Dawson Knox (hand) Q, OT Spencer Brown (back) Q, OG Jon Feliciano (calf) D
Jacksonville Jaguars: RB James Robinson (heel) Q, OG A.J. Cann (knee) IR, C Brandon Linder (knee – MCL) IR
Buffalo Bills Analysis
Josh Allen deserves his status as the favorite for MVP as he has proven that his massive leap forward last season was not a fluke. Allen has thrown for 1,972 yards and 17 touchdowns with only three interceptions while ranking third in EPA and seventh in QBR. Stefon Diggs hasn’t been as outstanding as last year, but he still leads the team with 503 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders is coming off his only game of the season with no catches, but he’s been a welcome addition as a field stretcher who’s made some huge plays. Dawson Knox still leads the team with five touchdowns, and he could be back in the lineup despite his broken hand. Cole Beasley leads the team with 43 catches and is a reliable short-to-intermediate receiver. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are never going to put up insane numbers with this team being one of the heaviest passing offenses in the NFL, but they have been solid. The Bills have the second-best third-down conversion rate in the NFL at 49.5%.
By most metrics available, the Bills have the best defense in the NFL. Buffalo has allowed the fewest yards and fewest points per game, and the fifth-lowest third-down percentage. They also lead the NFL in takeaways and turnover differential. If you’re a fan of analytics, the Bills lead the NFL in DVOA. However, according to Football Outsiders, they have had the easiest schedule in the NFL so far in regards to opponents’ offensive capability. However, this week doesn’t present a much tougher matchup for them as Jacksonville has the worst turnover differential in the NFL. We already knew the Buffalo secondary was elite with Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde. This season’s surprise for the Bill has been a deep and talented pass rush reinvigorated by young talent in A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau, and Boogie Basham. Add in one of the best middle linebackers in the league in Matt Milano, and you have the makings of a dominant defense.
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
I had high hopes for Trevor Lawrence coming off the bye week against a beatable Seattle defense, but he had a rough game as he completed just 59% of his passes and didn’t lead his team to a single point until late in the fourth quarter. It’s been a rocky rookie season for Lawrence, full of the typical first-year mistakes, but he’s shown flashes of high-level play. Unfortunately for Lawrence, the Jaguars have seen injuries to D.J. Chark, Travis Etienne, and now James Robinson hamper the team’s skill-position talent. The offensive line has also started to falter in recent weeks after a solid start to the year, particularly with A.J. Cann and Brandon Linder still on Injured Reserve. Jacksonville’s coaches haven’t found a way to use Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault the right way consistently, and their insistence on giving additional volume to Tavon Austin and Jamal Agnew instead has been frustrating
Jacksonville’s defense has some decent pieces, but Geno Smith just picked them apart with no resistance put up against him. Josh Allen is the best player on the team with 4.5 sacks and eight quarterback hits this season, and he’ll be putting up a good fight against the other Josh Allen (no relation). Unfortunately for the Jaguars’ Josh Allen and fortunately for the Bills’ Josh Allen, Jacksonville has generated just ten sacks on the year as it has one of the worst pass-rushes in football. Outside of Shaquill Griffin, the team’s secondary has been easily exploitable this year, making this an excellent matchup for the pass-happy Bills. Jacksonville ranks last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. They’ve been better against the run, ranking 14th in run defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 3.7 YPC, the third-fewest in the NFL. However, Buffalo is perfectly comfortable with an overwhelmingly air-oriented attack and can be dominant offensively while altogether abandoning the run. That makes this an awful, matchup for the Jacksonville defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Daily Fantasy Picks
It’s going to seemingly be a different Buffalo wide receiver who excels each week, and I think this is an excellent spot to target Emmanuel Sanders after he was held without a catch last week. The Jaguars’ secondary is very vulnerable, and Sanders has two games this season with two touchdowns and 20+ fantasy points in both of those games. If he hits those numbers again, he’d be a smash play in GPP lineups. Stefon Diggs will cost you a lot more, but he’s a solid play if you’re looking to go with an expensive Josh Allen stack. If Dawson Knox remains out, Tommy Sweeney will be a tremendous low-cost tight end flier, but I’m avoiding Knox until we see him produce despite the injury.
On the Jacksonville side, it’s tough to get excited about any of the available options. Trevor Lawrence has scored 20+ fantasy points just once all season and has been under 16 fantasy points in each of his last two games, making him an unpalatable QB given the brutal matchup. I don’t trust Jacksonville to properly utilize Jones or Shenault despite what should be a negative game script, but Jamal Agnew has been a good low-cost flier with his heavy utilization as of late. Dan Arnold is also a fantastic cheap tight end on a tough slate for the position; he has averaged 9.9 PPR points over his last three games. I’d play the Buffalo defense if it weren’t for how expensive they were, but against this putrid Jacksonville defense, it might be worth spending the lofty salary on them.
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