Free MLB Betting Props: Picks + Analysis 4/22/19

Recap

Here at Lineups we want to be as transparent as possible. This is where I will recap the prior day’s picks, and record my overall record.

Overall – 28-24-3

Last Article – 2-2

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Joe Musgrove OVER 5 Strikeouts (-112)

Joe Musgrove has had 6, 6, and 8 strikeouts over the last three starts, as his stellar 2019 continues. He gets a home matchup against Arizona, where their projected lineup has a 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching so far this season. Musgrove’s strikeout rate is up to 25.6% in 2019, which was predicted to by a few sharp minds. His whiff rate is 46% on his slider, which he throws over 25% of the time. His changeup also has a 48% whiff rate on his changeup. Excellent spot for Musgrove to rack up some strikeouts.

Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

White Sox OVER 5 Runs (-102)

Chicago will walk into Baltimore with a five team total, and David Hess on the mount. Hess has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three starts, and seven home runs in that span. He has a low strikeout rate at 17%, and is allowing a .288 ISO to right-handers and a .429 ISO to lefties. The White Sox projected lineup has a .340 wOBA and .214 ISO against right-handers so far in 2019. They do have high strikeout rates, but Hess throws mostly a fastball and a mediocre slider that has been hammered this season for a .487 wOBA. Good ballpark for offense, and the long ball can get this over to where we need to be in a hurry.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Jake Arrieta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Outside of Brandon Nimmo’s ridiculous 40% strikeout rate, which heightens them as a team, they still only have an 18% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Jake Arrieta is on the hill tonight, who has a 16% strikeout rate so far in 2019, and a swinging strike rate below 8%. He doesn’t have a whiff rate over 25%, and relies mostly on his sinker to get guys out on the ground. Arrieta just faced this Mets team and had three strikeouts over eight innings. Not a lot of strikeouts in this Mets lineup, and Arrieta doesn’t possess strikeout stuff anymore.

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Rangers OVER 3.5 Runs (-122)

Because of the move to a big ballpark in Oakland, the Texas team total sits at a measly 3.5 runs. The rangers are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season, and have averaged 4.2 in the last ten games against Oakland. Chris Bassitt is an average right-hander who has a mediocre strikeout rate and average groundball rate. He relies on a sinker and cutter, which the Texas bats matchup well against, especially sinkers. Four runs is very doable for this Rangers offense.