NFL Player Props: Picks, Odds, & Strategy

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NFL Player Prop Odds

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Jacob Wayne Record: 22-19.75 (+1.25u)

NFL Player Prop Week 4 Picks

Updated: 9/30/22 – 1:33 AM EST

Courtland Sutton Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)

This was one of the first player props I grabbed for the Sunday slate as I’ve been impressed with Courtland Sutton for two straight weeks now. Sutton has clearly earned Russell Wilson’s trust as he’s had a 35% and 30% target share over the last two weeks, giving him 28 targets on the season – that’s by far the most of any Broncos pass-catcher. This week, Denver faces a Raiders pass defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA and 25th via PFF’s metrics. While Nate Hobbs has been excellent this year, he missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable this week. Regardless of whether or not he plays, I like Sutton to be heavily involved in this game and go over his receiving yardage line for the third straight week.

Rashaad Penny Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Near the end of last season, the Seahawks and Lions faced off, and Rashaad Penny exploded with 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Detroit run defense hasn’t improved much, as they still rank third-worst in the league per PFF grades and have allowed almost 50% of opposing runs to gain 5+ yards, the worst mark in the league. Penny played on 69% of the team’s snaps last week and saw 14 carries, which should be more than enough to hit 60 yards against this poor run defense. I’m also playing a half unit on Penny to score a touchdown in this game, and he’s one of my favorite looks for DFS lineups this week.

Nick Chubb Longest Rush Over 18.5 Yards (-110 DraftKings)

This is an absolute smash spot for Nick Chubb. The Falcons have allowed 3+ yards before contact at a 29% rate, the sixth-highest in the league. When Chubb is given at least 3 yards before contact, he has gained 15+ yards on 21% of his carries this season. That comes in at a 23% rate over the past two seasons. Chubb has a run of 20+ yards in every game this season and in seven straight games dating back to 2021. It’s difficult to imagine that streak ending against Atlanta’s run defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and has allowed the third-highest success rate per run.

Austin Ekeler Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Yikes. It’s been a brutal start to the year for Austin Ekeler with just 26.6 rushing yards per game this season. It hasn’t been his fault. The Chargers have shuffled through four different offensive line combinations, and now they’re without Rashawn Slater for the rest of the season. Ekeler is averaging just 0.09 yards before contact per attempt per TruMedia, the worst mark in the league, and Houston has contacted running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 49% of opposing carries, the eighth-best mark. It’s probably going to get worse before it gets better for Ekeler, and the books still haven’t properly adjusted.

Alvin Kamara Over 3.5 Receptions (-102 FanDuel)

It’s been a tough start to the season for Alvin Kamara between his ribs injury and Jameis Winston’s play not being conducive to his success. Kamara has just five catches for 19 yards through his two games played this year. However, Winston is sitting this week’s game out, and Andy Dalton will be under center. That will be a huge benefit to Kamara as Dalton has a long history of utilizing his running backs in the passing game. Without Michael Thomas on the field, Kamara should see an even higher rate of targets. The Vikings’ soft shell, zone defense is ideal for Kamara in the underneath and intermediate areas, and I’m projecting a breakout game for him this week.

Author: Jacob Wayne

What is an NFL Player Prop?

NFL player props are side bets not related to the actual outcome of the game. NFL player props are wagers on specific statistical outcomes relating to individual players. When betting them, you will root for the specific player to have success or not rather than rooting for a specific team to win the game or cover against the spread. One reason for the continued interest in NFL player props is the popularity of fantasy football and Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests which are closely tied to the statistical outcomes of player performance.

Types of NFL Player Props

There is a wide variety of NFL player props to choose from, and the list of available markets is only growing. The following are some of the NFL player props you will see listed at your preferred sportsbook:

  • QB passing yards
  • QB completions
  • QB interceptions
  • RB rushing yards
  • RB rushing plus receiving yards
  • WR receiving yards
  • WR receptions
  • TE receiving yards
  • TE receptions
  • Touchdown markets – (first/last, anytime, 1st half, 2nd half, etc.)
  • Defensive player sacks
  • Defensive player interceptions
  • Defensive player tackles
  • Two-player head-to-head props

How to Research NFL Player Props

There are several ways to go about researching NFL player props, but the core components remain the same – matchup and player hit rates. When we select player props to recommend, we are utilizing tools to discover how many times a player has gone over or under a selected line in recent weeks. It’s also important to know how good the opponent that your player is facing, and how good the player himself is. Efficiency metrics like EPA, DVOA, YPC, and red-zone metrics are huge in that realm. Additionally, always check the weather statistics as rain, wind, and snow can affect a team’s passing or rushing volume.

In a highly competitive, constantly changing market, every piece of information you consider can make a huge difference in winning and losing your bets. Let’s dive into some specifics across different positions:

Quarterbacks: Understanding matchups might be the most important for projecting quarterbacks in player prop betting as they are often the most reactive to the opponent they face. For example, betting on a quarterback to pass for a high number of yards would have been a much smarter choice against the Jets last year than it would have been against the Bills. The game script can also be key – will the team be in a fast-paced shootout? Will they be clawing back down multiple scores and in a pass-first mindset? Those are good things to know, as well.

Running Backs: There are more markets available for running backs than any other position, so knowing which prop you want to bet on is key. For example, the rushing + receiving yards prop might be inflated, but securing both categories can be important. It’s also smart to look into matchups with running backs before you place your bet. Targeting props for players facing defenses that allow a high number of rushing yards or touchdowns is smart. Finally, the game script can be everything for a running back as teams facing a large deficit will abandon the run, and teams with the lead will turn to the ground game to run out the clock.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: Wide receivers and tight ends are essentially the same market as they have the same props available as pass-catchers for their respective teams. Having confidence in the team’s quarterback is important here, and is often more important than the talent level of the actual receiver. For example, I have always had a hard time betting on the Panthers’ D.J. Moore due to the putrid quarterback play he has been saddled with throughout his career. Like the positions above, the game script can be important, as is the matchup. You should typically avoid receivers facing top cornerbacks such as Jalen Ramsey or Jaire Alexander. Looking into their usage and targets is also key.

Where to Bet NFL Player Props

NFL player props are widely available across the legal U.S. sportsbooks, and the selection of available wagers is only continuing to grow. Some of the top sportsbooks where you can find NFL player props include BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, FOX Bet, PointsBet, and Caesars. Check out our various sportsbook reviews to determine which option is the best for you and access the highest-value promotional offers available.

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NFL Player Prop Odds Shopping

While you can place wagers on NFL player props with any sportsbook, you should always be shopping the market across different platforms. As with any market, the odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks. You can check back on this page every week for the latest odds from various platforms, and we will always recommend sportsbooks in our articles based on where you can find the best odds. Keep in mind that the odds can also be boosted by available promotional offers.

NFL Player Props FAQ

What are NFL player prop bets?

NFL player prop bets allow you to place a wager on the statistical outcome of a player’s performance rather than the actual outcome of the game. For example, rather than betting on the Bengals winning, you’re betting on Joe Burrow to throw for a certain number of yards or touchdowns.

Where can I legally place NFL player prop bets online?

All of the legal online sportsbooks in your state will have NFL player props available for wagering. Some of our favorite sportsbooks include DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. For more information on the best available platforms in your market, check out our online sportsbook reviews.

What happens if the player I bet on gets injured?

Unfortunately, if you place an NFL player prop bet and the player you wagered on gets hurt during the game, your bet will likely not be voided. There are a handful of exceptions, but for the most part, you are likely out of luck in the event of an injury that occurs during the game.

Why can some NFL player props get voided?

There are rare occasions where you place an NFL player prop bet, and the player you wagered on never sees the field. Some books will honor the bet if the player technically starts the game but doesn’t play, and others will require the player to at least appear in the game for one snap. In all cases, the sportsbook will void your bet if the player is ruled inactive before the game.

Will the NFL player prop lines change throughout the week?

Yes, player prop markets are oftentimes even more reactive than the actual game markets, so the best odds for most players will usually be earlier in the week before sharp money infiltrates the market. One key way to combat the odds movement is to shop the odds across different sportsbooks as you can find different lines on different platforms.

Is live betting available for NFL player props?

Yes and no, this is a complicated one. Player props are typically not available after the game begins, but some markets will remain open during the contest depending on which sportsbook you are using. Additionally, you can place in-game micro-bets such as “will the next play be a run or the pass?” while the players are on the field.

Jason has been working in the sports and betting industry for the last decade. He has written for various sites and is now the current Site Manager of Lineups.com. He strives for providing a site that delivers some of the top tools and content for sports fans and sports bettors.

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