We are looking at the early odds to win Super Bowl 54 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is in Miami this year. Given it is in Miami, the Dolphins are currently dead last in odds to win the Super Bowl. The teams that were in the conference finals from last season sit atop of the table heading into the season. This year seems more wide open, although we say that and then New England is holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year.
Odds will change over time, as records change, and injuries occur. Getting in early can be crucial to getting value on certain picks. Getting in early also comes with some risk as injuries can derail a season. With 32 teams, you can break them into a few tiers. The top tier of teams include teams like New England and New Orleans. Teams like Minnesota and Philadelphia are just on the cusp, despite having a real chance of making it to the Super Bowl.
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The Heavy Favorites
Overall you are getting heavy plus money across the board with the four major favorites. Do we need to go into why New England is a Super Bowl favorite? No. The Patriots are +700, so whether you are a homer or like to take a safe pick, the Pats are a healthy return. Kansas City were on the brink of a Super Bowl appearance last season. There were some leaks in the defense, and some off the field troubles, which puts somewhat of a damper on them. However, they still bring a loaded offense and hopefully an improved defense. The Chiefs at +800 is another fine value, and will likely start to trend down as the season gets going.
Both New England and Kansas City are the front runners in the AFC, and the Saints sit as favorites to with the NFC, with the Rams closely following behind. Now the Saints currently have the third best odds to win the Super Bowl. They were ousted in Minnesota on a miraculous play, and then last year they were hosed on a pass interference call late against the Rams. While there were certainly other reasons why they didn’t advance, you can still make the case for New Orleans reaching back-to-back Super Bowls. The Saints have one of the most complete rosters, a hall of fame quarterback, and a strong home field advantage.
Best Value: New Orleans Saints (+850)
Next In Line
The Cleveland hype train is real, and I was a bit surprised to see them with these odds. They have a vastly improved roster, and a better coaching staff for them to thrive. The story would be fun, but the surrounding teams seem like more likely shots this season, where Cleveland could thrive next year. Chicago was close last season, but the offense is still one I have a tough time trusting to make the long run. Carson Wentz’s health the last few years makes the Eagles a risky bet, but like Chicago, these are generous odds for teams that will be in the playoff mix.
Los Angeles has had some tough injury luck, and Philip Rivers has had a tough career running into the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers over the last 15 years. The Chargers at +1400 is extremely enticing, and really strong value for a team that is complete on both sides of the ball. If they can stay healthy, Los Angeles will be a double-digit win team. If they can lock up a one seed, the daunting task of traveling east would be avoided. After uncertainty with Andrew Luck, there was a change in front office and with the staff. Luck is now back, and the Colts have built a strong core on both sides of the ball. While they don’t quite have the firepower of some in the AFC, Indy could make a serious run. They are favorites to win the AFC South, which is a good start.
Best Values: Los Angeles Chargers (+1400), Indianapolis Colts (+1600)
Middle Tier Value
These seemingly are the teams that could make noise just by getting into the playoffs. Given how close most of these division races and wild card races will be, there will be some teams that just miss the cut. We have seen those 5/6 seeds make runs in the playoffs, and that is where these teams might be looking. Potential division winners would have an advantage in this group, and the AFC North, NFC North, NFC East, and AFC South are really up for grabs. Green Bay, Dallas, and Pittsburgh sit with higher odds, and you have to wonder if their market has inflated things a bit. Atlanta, Minnesota, Seattle, and Houston have such better chances, and better values to make a run and win the Super Bowl.
The Vikings were a team that took a step back, but with better offensive line help, and still a well-rounded roster they are a solid bunch. Atlanta is a team that struggled last season, and defensive injuries were a big part of it. The core of Julio Jones and Matt Ryan is aging quickly, and the window for this group is closing. The Falcons are an excellent bounce back team, and while they will have a tough time with New Orleans in the division, we have seen them push double-digit wins and take this division before. Seattle is always a threat, even though their roster isn’t on par with some of these teams. They are likely wild card finishers unless the Rams collapse, and with those two likely making the playoffs, it is tough to see San Francisco busting through this season.
Best Values: Minnesota Vikings (+2600), Atlanta Falcons (+2600), Seattle Seahawks (+3000)
Not a lot of thriving teams in this group, even though we have seen a few Super Bowl wins and appearances in this group over the last decade. A lot is going to rest on the shoulder’s of Cam Newton again, and his durability will be what keeps Carolina’s season afloat. Despite all of that, +5000 odds is worth taking a shot on. I can’t make the case for many in this group, although Tampa and New York might have some fireworks this season. The Giants might be close, but it is hard to see them moving in the right direction with the question marks at quarterback. The values here are sort of drawing dead when you look at what they would have to get through to even reach the playoffs. Carolina is in a tough division, but a wild card spot could be their way in again.
Best Value: Carolina Panthers (+5000)
Maybe In Five Years
These teams have been here before, and by here, I mean they have been at the end of the table for least likely to win the Super Bowl. There is a lot to like about the rebuild process for some of these teams, but we won’t quite see it yet. Picking on from this group, Washington would be it. They have a complete defense, a steady run game, and if the quarterback situation pans out, Washington is a sneaky dark horse in the NFC East. This team won seven games, and then collapsed once Alex Smith went down with a major injury. They have a lot to offer, and they aren’t the most flashiest team of this group, but their style of play is going to be tricky for opponents in 2019.
Best Value: Washington Redskins (+7000)