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The Super Bowl 54 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are updated. The Super Bowl is in Miami this year and unfortunately there is no chance of the Dolphins playing a home game in February.
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Super Bowl Moneyline Odds
Kansas City is the slight favorite in this game. After seeing how Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs’ offense has played over the past seven quarters, it is hard to believe anyone can stop this team right now. The Chiefs were down 24-0 against Houston in the Divisional Round before outscoring them 51-7 to end the game. Tennessee got out to a 17-7 lead before Mahomes and company turned it up and went on a 28-7 run. The arm talent of Mahomes is unquestioned but he showed the world against the Titans that you can underestimate his scrambling ability either. Mahomes had a 27-yard scramble for a touchdown that was one of the best playoff runs you will ever see. Can this offense possibly be stopped?
For the 49ers, it is all about defense. They had the league’s best pass defense so if any team could stop the Chiefs, it should be the 49ers, right? San Francisco’s offense is run-based and considering the Chiefs have one of the worst rush defenses in this league, the Niners match-up really well against the Chiefs. This has the makings to be one of the best Super Bowls over the past decade. Can Jimmy G do enough to win this game and will the Niners defense do enough to give them a chance?
Either moneyline bet makes sense in this one. The juice isn’t very high on a small favorite like Kansas City. Getting the 49ers at plus money certainly provides the better value but can you really bet against Mahomes and that offense?
Super Bowl Spread Odds
Currently the Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite. Some books even have them as just a one-point favorite. FanDuel has both spread options sitting at -110. Avid sports bettors will be the first to tell you that a half of a point really is a big difference. Is it worth taking the Chiefs -1.5 at -110 odds over the moneyline at -116? In this situation, the moneyline appears to be a better bet for Chiefs bettors than the spread.
For Niners backers, the difference in payout between the moneyline and spread is a little more significant. Getting 1.5 points at -110 or betting them straight up at +102 is your two choices. The same argument can be made that you want to take that extra half point. However, at plus money, is it worth the risk to just take the Niners on the moneyline? Defense wins championships, right? Risk over reward in this one would suggest taking the Niners outright.
Super Bowl Over/Under Odds
The total is this game certainly suggests favor towards Kansas City. The Chiefs would love a high-scoring shootout while the Niners would be content with a low-scoring defensive battle. The total is fairly high as it currently sits around 53.5. Both of Kansas City’s previous two playoff games went above that total. San Francisco just saw a total of 57 in their game against Green Bay. However, the Packers did all of their scoring in the second half when San Francisco went to more of a prevent-style defense.
The choice in over/under here should relate to who you expect to win this game. If you think the Chiefs win this one, it will probably be a high-scoring game, making the over the play. If the 49ers are going to win, it will be more likely to be a low-scoring game. Another thing to consider, is it more likely that Kansas City wins in a low-scoring game or that San Francisco wins in a shootout? We know how good Mahomes and that Chiefs’ offense is. Jimmy G and that Niners offense showed just how good their run game is and that they can score in bunches as well. After a low-scoring Super Bowl last year between New England and the L.A. Rams, we might be in for a high-scoring battle this time around.
Super Bowl Team Totals Odds
Both the Chiefs and the 49ers have the same exact team total on FanDuel Sportsbook. Each team is getting an over/under of 27 points. While the totals are the same, the payouts are not. The over 27 points for the Chiefs is paying out at -116 while the 49ers are paying out -106 for the over. As a result, the under for the Chiefs is paying -104 while the under for the 49ers is paying out -116.
Based on these payouts, FanDuel is expecting the Chiefs to have the better chance of going above their team totals. However, both teams have very good shots of going over which would also put the game total over. While the 49ers will be the toughest defense the Chiefs face this season, Kansas City has scored 27+ points in 10 games this season, including their last three. For San Francisco, they have scored 27+ in 11 games this season. With that weak Chiefs’ running defense and how potent their offense is, both teams have excellent shots of getting to the four touchdown mark.
Super Bowl Props Odds
Every player in this category is coming in at plus money. If you’re feeling lucky you can bet on Kansas City punter Dustin Colquitt at +30000. There are even two players at +50000 because apparently Colquitt will do something more significant in this game than a couple of position players? Anyways, the smart bet if you are a Chiefs backer is 100% on Patrick Mahomes who is a surprising +110. We know the MVP is going to come from the winning team so if you are a 49ers backer, the best bet is most likely Jimmy G at +240.
While the quarterback is the most common and logical choice in this position, it sure isn’t a lock. So what player from each team has the best chance of stealing the spotlight from the QB and taking home Super Bowl MVP? For the Chiefs, it has to be Tyreek Hill (+1700). Not only does her provide excellent value but he is certainly capable of taking home Super Bowl MVP honors. Hill is the fastest player in the league and virtually impossible to cover. If the Chiefs win this game and Mahomes doesn’t take home MVP, Hill has to be the next in line.
For the 49ers, a running back winning the MVP seems more likely than Jimmy G because of their offense being so run-heavy. Even a defensive player could steal the show for this team. While some defensive players are certainly worth a longshot stab (like Nick Bosa +3500 or Arik Armstead +10000), a running back is more likely to lead the way for the Niners. After his impressive performance against Green Bay in the Divisional Round, it is hard to pass up on Raheem Mostert (+750) if you are a 49ers backer in this one.
Some people say that every bet is a coin toss but this one truly is. For those looking for some excitement before kickoff you can place a wager on what the result of the coin toss will be. As expected, the odds are even in this one (-103). There is zero science to this bet but if you like trends, it has been tails five of the last six seasons. Is the law of averages due to come up heads? Tails leads the all-time series 28-25.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
There are plenty of great bets on both sides of the ball in this one. After scoring four touchdowns against the Packers, Raheem Mostert is sitting at -125. Chiefs’ running back Damien Williams has the best odds for his team, coming in at -135. The rest of the players on each team are coming in at plus money. The best value bets for each team should be in Tyreek Hill (+110) for the Chiefs and George Kittle (+125) for the Niners.
Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards
The total passing yards for Patrick Mahomes is set at 297.5. Considering that the 49ers had the league’s best pass defense (allowing just 169.2 passing yards per game), many may think the under is the smart bet here. Mahomes passed above the 297.5 mark eight times this season in his 16 games this season. However, he has only done in three times over the last 11 games. That’s another reason to take the under. Despite those numbers, I believe the OVER is the best bet here. We know the Chiefs are going to pass the ball a lot in this game. As good as the Niners pass defense is, they haven’t seen an offense like this yet. The speed of the Kansas City receivers and the arm talent of Mahomes is a combination no defense can contain for very long. In the biggest stage of his career, I expect Mahomes to shine and have a big game against a great defense. Unless you expect Kansas City to get shut down in this game, I suggest the OVER as the offense is going to flow through Mahomes and that passing attack.
As expected, the number for Jimmy G is lower than Mahomes, but not as low as you might think. The total for Garoppolo is set at a surprising 242.5. Considering Jimmy G only through eight times for 77 yards against the Packers, that number may seem way too high. Well, it really isn’t. Garoppolo and that Niners’ offense will need to pass the ball a lot more in this game as they will have to keep up with arguably the best offense in the NFL. Garoppolo has surpassed the 242.5 mark 10 times this season. The Niners passing attack is better than some may think, they just haven’t had to utilize it much this season. They’re going to have to against the Chiefs if they want to win the Super Bowl so I expect a nice statistical game out of Garoppolo as well. Like Mahomes, I am siding with the OVER for Garoppolo as he will be required to put up some big numbers to keep up with the Chiefs.
First Touchdown Scorer
Picking the correct player to score the first touchdown of the game is one of the tougher prop bets available. Not only do you have to find the right person on the team who is going to score first, you have to hope you even pick a player from the correct team. The coin toss is a big factor in a bet like this. A prop bet that starts out with a 50/50 shot from the start of your team even scoring first is tough enough but then adding in getting the correct player to score for that team? That is why payouts on these prop bets are significantly high.
Even the “favorites” are paying out 6/1 in this game if you bet on the correct player. For the 49ers, Raheem Mostert is the favorite and would make the most sense due to their run-heavy attack. However, an experienced slot guy like Emmanuel Sanders provides a ton of value in this spot. If Garoppolo is going to be throwing down in the red zone early, he will be looking towards his veteran receiver in a game like this. Jimmy G likes to throw over the middle where Sanders likes to run crossing routes. George Kittle is of course an excellent option as well but laying a few bucks on Sanders here not only provides a big return but also makes sense.
For the Chiefs, it becomes more difficult. This team has so many weapons with speed that any player on this team can bust out a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the game. Running back Damien Williams is the favorite for the Chiefs to score first and despite them being such a pass-heavy team, the reasoning makes sense. Williams could see a screen play down near the redzone and punch it in or he might even get a rare opportunity to run it in himself. One player that can’t be ignored is Tyreek Hill. His speed alone makes him one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL. The Chiefs will be looking to score early and often in this game to set the tone against that Niners’ defense. While Travis Kelce, like Kittle, is also a smart bet, Hill is the one here who deserves some money on this bet. He can score from anywhere on the field any time he touches the ball. That kind of talent is hard not to bet on.
Damien Williams and Raheem Mostert Total Rushing Yards
Williams has only surpassed the 51-yard mark four times all season. As good as the 49ers defense is, they were just 17th against the rush this season. Williams may only need to break one good run to pass the mark and he could get plenty of garbage time action late if the Chiefs get a big lead. The best bet here is on the OVER.
Mostert destroyed the Packers for 220 yards on 29 carries last game. He won’t come anywhere near that amount in this game as the 49ers will need to throw a lot to keep up with Kansas City. Since October, Mostert only surpassed 77 yards one other time. As bad as the Chiefs have been against the run, they have improved of late. Needing to keep up with the Chiefs, Mostert won’t get as much action in this game. Mostert should fall short of his projected rushing total in this game
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Mahomes has 53 rushing yards in each of his two playoff games this season. During the regular season, he only surpassed the 30-yard mark twice. The 49ers pass defense will flush Mahomes from the pocket a lot in this game. Mahomes will need to make plays with his feet in this game and we very well could see another run like the one he had in the AFC Championship game before halftime. The Over is a good bet here as Mahomes should get plenty of opportunities to scramble.
|Patrick Mahomes||O 30.5 (-134)||U 30.5 (+104)|
To Score 2+ Touchdowns
For the 49ers, Raheem Mostert provides the best value here. Mostert had four touchdowns against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game and while he probably won’t see that kind of success or even volume in this game, with a run-first offense, you have to roll with Mostert for the 49ers.
For the Chiefs, it is the opposite. The offense runs through Mahomes. His biggest deep-threat weapon is no doubt Tyreek Hill. Travis Kelce should also be in for a big day with a lot of quick passes over the middle as Mahomes gets pressured constantly. Both receivers provide excellent value and should both be the two that are most likely to see the endzone mmltiple times for the Chiefs.
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