DraftKings NFL Week 12 Top Plays, Game Stacks + Optimal DFS Lineups
Contents
Over/Under Lookahead
One of the best ways to identify valuable DraftKings targets is projecting the game script and potential scoring production for both teams in any given matchup. Of course, we want to target the highest-scoring games on the week as those games will produce the most fantasy points. Game stacks are often a great way to reduce variability in a given lineup by securing more pieces from a higher-scoring game. Winter is coming, and the weather will continue to be a massive factor, so make sure you check out our matchup pages to stay apprised of the forecast. These are the games this week with the highest and lowest over/under totals (main slate only).
Highest-Scoring Games
- Chiefs @ Buccaneers – O/U 56 (Chiefs -3.5)
- Raiders @ Falcons – O/U 53 (Raiders -3)
- Chargers @ Bills – O/U 53 (Bills -4)
- Titans @ Colts – O/U 51.5 (Colts -3)
- Panthers @ Vikings – O/U 51 (Vikings -3.5)
Lowest-Scoring Games
- Saints @ Broncos – O/U 42.5 (Saints -6)
- Giants @ Bengals – O/U 44 (Giants -6)
- 49ers @ Rams – O/U 44.5 (Rams -6.5)
- Dolphins @ Jets – O/U 44.5 (Dolphins -7)
- Ravens @ Steelers – O/U 45 (Steelers -4.5)
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,000): In each of his past three games, Patrick Mahomes has completed 30+ passes for 348+ yards. He has 11 touchdowns to just one interception over that span and has averaged 29.8 fantasy points per game over that span. The Buccaneers aren’t typically an opponent to target for opposing quarterbacks, but they did allow Jared Goff to throw for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. Tampa’s defense is adept at stopping the run, and the Chiefs have already been less inclined to run the ball in recent weeks, so there is the possibility for 50+ passing attempts in this game for Mahomes in the projected highest-scoring game on the week. Mahomes is a great play in tournaments but an even better play in cash lineups with one of the best weekly floors in fantasy football.
Josh Allen ($7,600): Josh Allen sits as the QB4 in fantasy this season and has evolved as a real-life quarterback. After a tough stretch of games in which he didn’t surpass 20 fantasy points, he finished as a top-five quarterback in two straight weeks in high-scoring games against weak defenses in the Seahawks and Cardinals. A similar game script awaits this week against the Chargers, who allow the 8th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Some of their defensive results in recent weeks include allowing a top-10 finish for Drew Lock, a top-15 finish for Tua Tagovailoa, and a top-20 finish for Joe Flacco. Los Angeles’s secondary has been decimated with injuries, and Allen has the arm talent to push the ball downfield. This is one of my favorite games to stack this week.
Justin Herbert ($7,200): What an incredible year it’s been for the former Oregon quarterback. He’s on pace for the best rookie season of all time as he’s on a 16-game pace of 4,800 passing yards and 39 touchdowns. He’s scored 20+ fantasy points in eight of nine games this season and isn’t just playing amazing ball by rookie standards – he ranks 8th in the NFL in passer rating. The Bills have some strong secondary talent, but they have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and this is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Herbert is a fantasy stud – his elite consistency gives him a phenomenal baseline, and he has a huge ceiling with five games of 3+ passing touchdowns this season. Herbert will see a ton of ownership in GPP tournaments, so he might be someone to pivot off, but he’s a great target for cash games.
Teddy Bridgewater ($6,300): The Vikings have been a phenomenal defense to target for fantasy football as they’ve allowed the 11th-most passing yards, 2nd-most passing touchdowns, and the 13th-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Bridgewater was almost able to play for Carolina last week, and he’ll surely be on the field against his former team in Minnesota this week. With Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel at his disposal, the Panthers have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, and the Vikings have a porous pass defense that’s also missing a handful of cornerbacks to injuries. This is set to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, and as I’ll discuss shortly, it’s a brilliant opportunity to stack up some players on both sides.
Derek Carr ($5,700): Nobody has allowed more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Falcons as they’ve allowed the 2nd-most passing yards and tied for the 2nd-most passing touchdowns as well. Derek Carr has had a phenomenal season, and he ranks 4th in the NFL in QBR. Last week, he had a near-perfect game against the Chiefs as he completed 23 of 31 passes for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns and finished with a QBR of 95.1. With Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow, and Henry Ruggs, Carr is playing with perhaps the best receiving corps of his career, and it shines through in his incredible production. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven of ten games and should be able to do the same again this week.
Other quarterbacks to consider: Kyler Murray ($8,200), Tom Brady ($6,600), Cam Newton ($6,400), Taysom Hill ($6,200), Matt Ryan ($5,900), Daniel Jones ($5,500), Robert Griffin III ($4,100)
Quarterbacks I’m selling: Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600), Philip Rivers ($6,100), Kirk Cousins ($6,100), Jared Goff ($6,000), Tua Tagovailoa ($5,900), Sam Darnold ($5,100)
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($9,500): The RB1 in fantasy football this season, Dalvin Cook is the early frontrunner for fantasy MVP. He’s run for 13 touchdowns in 9 games and has run for 5.3 yards per carry, the most-efficient mark of any player with 110+ rushes this season. This week, he faces a Panthers’ defense that has been incredibly generous to the running back position. Cook may seem like a fade given the absurd price point, but he’s finished as the RB1 in fantasy in three of his last four games. Cook is on a 16-game pace of 1,900 rushing yards with 23 touchdowns on the ground. He’s the clear-cut top fantasy option each and every week, especially in such a plus matchup. Don’t hesitate to pay up for him.
Josh Jacobs ($7,200): With 13+ PPR points in four straight weeks, Josh Jacobs has been one of the most consistent fantasy running back options. He’s run for 9 touchdowns in 10 games, a 16-game pace of 14.5 touchdowns. He’s also on pace for 38 receptions, which would shatter his rookie mark of 20 catches. This week he faces the Falcons, who have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but I’m still confident in Jacobs’ ability to produce. If the Raiders get ahead early in this game – a real possibility – he could tally 20+ carries for the fifth time this season. Regardless, his consistency makes him a weekly target for me in cash games, and he’s not a bad option in GPP tournaments either.
Nick Chubb ($7,100) and Kareem Hunt ($5,600): It was a fun welcome back to the fold for Chubb last week as he ran for 114 yards on 20 carries against a Philly defense that has allowed just 4.2 yards per carry this season. Chubb is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, and he runs behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in football. This week, the Browns’ offensive line has one of the best matchups in the trenches against the Jaguars’ defensive line that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to RBs. That makes Kareem Hunt a great play, as well. Hunt had just 14 touches last week against the Eagles, but he had 22 touches a couple of weeks ago against a similarly porous defense to the Jaguars in the Texans. Jacksonville is allowing the 4th-most receptions per game to RBs, and Kevin Stefanski’s offense features Hunt in the passing game. Both of these running backs could be top-1o guys this week, potentially top-5 for Chubb, and I have no problem with even rolling out both of them in the same lineup.
James Robinson ($6,300): I was terrified of James Robinson’s ability to produce last week against a brutal Steelers’ front seven. However, he still ran for 4.3 YPC as he put up 17 rushes for 73 yards and 2 catches for 21 yards. He has 16+ touches in every game this season and has averaged 20.3 touches per game. The Browns have been a pretty stout defense against the run game, but Myles Garrett and Simeone Takitaki are expected to miss this game after positive COVID-19 diagnoses, so they’ll be left a little light in the front seven. Mike Glennon’s introduction as the team’s new starting quarterback should at least make their offense a little more efficient, and Robinson’s consistency in touches gives him a great weekly floor. He’s great cash gameplay and a strong contrarian play in GPP tournaments at a solid price tag.
Jonathan Taylor ($5,900): I’m back in on the rookie running back. Taylor ran for 90 yards on 22 carries last week and added 4 catches for 24 yards against the Packers. 26 touches in that game is an incredible number for the rookie. I’m hopeful that this game will be a sign of things to come in Taylor dominating snaps at the running back position. The Colts face the Titans this week, who have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position, and Taylor provides massive upside at this price tag. His lack of consistency puts him off the radar for me in cash lineups, but in GPPs, his upside and projected low ownership makes him a very interesting target in a plus matchup.
Wayne Gallman ($5,000): With plenty of higher-priced options at your disposal this week, it’s going to be very valuable to have a cheaper option at running back who provides a solid baseline. That’s exactly what Wayne Gallman represents this week. No, I’m not just suggesting him because we share a namesake – although I do appreciate that aspect of the equation. Instead, I’m investing in a running back who’s emerging as the leader of his backfield on a team that is projected to win by one of the largest margins of the week. The Giants’ defense is going to dominate a Bengals’ offense adjusting to life without Joe Burrow, and Cincinnati has been very generous to the running back position, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to that group. Gallman has scored five touchdowns over the past four weeks and should have a great chance to do so again. His floor in a plus matchup makes him one of my favorite targets for cash lineups.
Other running backs to consider: Derrick Henry ($7,900), Mike Davis ($6,900), Kalen Ballage ($5,800), Todd Gurley ($5,500), Gus Edwards ($5,200), Salvon Ahmed ($5,100), Nyheim Hines ($4,600), James White ($4,500), Brian Hill ($4,000)
Running backs I’m selling: Ronald Jones II ($6,100), Alexander Mattison ($6,000), Latavius Murray ($5,900), Giovani Bernard ($5,700), Malcolm Brown ($4,700), Le’Veon Bell ($4,500), Cam Akers ($4,200), La’Mical Perine ($4,100), Jordan Wilkins ($4,000), Benny Snell Jr. ($4,000), Dion Lewis ($4,000)
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($7,800): Many likely see the Bucs as a matchup to avoid. However, over the past three weeks, Tampa has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. That includes last week when they allowed Cooper Kupp (11-145) and Robert Woods (12-130-1) to dominate against their secondary en route to a Rams win. The Chiefs-Bucs game has the highest over-under total on the week, and we’re expecting a shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Tyreek is clearly the Chiefs’ top wideout, and he has scored 6 touchdowns over his last 4 games along with an average of 25.8 PPR points per game. Don’t be fooled by the high price tag and the red matchup number – the Bucs’ secondary has been torched lately, and Hill has WR1 upside. He should absolutely be in your lineups, especially for tournaments.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600): In his first season with the Bills, Stefon Diggs has 73 catches for 906 yards, ranking in the top three in both categories. That puts him on a 16-game pace of 117 catches for 1,450 yards – those would-be career-best numbers for him. This week, he faces the Chargers, who have quickly crumbled into one of the worst secondaries in football amidst a handful of injuries to key players. Chris Harris Jr. is expected to return this week, but Casey Heyward will remain out, and the secondary hasn’t been the same without him or Desmond King, who was traded to the Titans. Harris likely won’t shadow Diggs, and it may not even matter with how great Diggs has played this season. The Bills and Chargers face off in what’s expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, and the highly-productive combination of him and Allen should keep it rolling this week.
Calvin Ridley ($7,100) and Julio Jones ($6,500): The Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past three weeks, and they come into a matchup against one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury and is currently listed as questionable, but if he does play, that gives him a great chance to produce as a player with lower ownership. I’m not scared off Jones after that 2-39 game last week as the Saints’ front seven gave Matt Ryan minimal chance to move the ball downfield. Regardless of whether or not Julio plays, I’m expecting a strong game from Calvin Ridley against a Raiders’ defense that has allowed five receivers to go over 100 receiving yards this season. The Falcons’ passing offense should be productive in this game, and I’m intrigued by both of these guys, although they’re much more tournament plays than cash game targets.
Justin Jefferson ($6,300): As of Friday afternoon, it looks like Adam Thielen will miss this week’s game after testing positive for COVID-19. That will pave the way for Justin Jefferson to be among the week’s target leaders, and with his 18.8 YPR, the combination of a large target share and big-play ability is juicy. Jefferson has scored 16.1 PPR points over the past three weeks, already making him a strong WR2 play, but he has top-five WR potential against the Panthers’ secondary. Carolina has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks, so Jefferson has great potential. I’m in on him in both cash games and tournaments.
D.J. Moore ($6,200) and Robby Anderson ($6,100): A rocky start to the season sent people packing on D.J. Moore, but he now has the 6th-most receiving yards in the NFL with 863. He’s on a 16-game pace of 67 catches for 1,255 yards and 6 touchdowns, a very productive season. Robby Anderson has been the top target on the team with 71 catches, the fourth-most in the NFL. He has scored just one touchdown this year, though, so his fantasy production has slipped. However, this matchup is set to provide the opportunity for strong fantasy value for both of these guys. The Vikings have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so both Moore and Anderson are in play in both cash lineups and in tournaments. I’d look to stack either one with Teddy Bridgewater, and with their prices so similar, I would build two near-identical lineups with one of the two and Bridgewater.
DeVante Parker ($5,900): After getting off the schneid last week with a 6-61-1 performance, DeVante Parker is firmly back in play for DFS. We saw rookie Tua Tagovailoa get benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, but regardless of who is under center for Miami, there’s going to be plenty of passing production against the Jets. New York allows the 5th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and they allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers last week. Parker has scored 12+ PPR points in two of the past three weeks, and I trust him to get to that mark in a plus matchup, regardless of who is under center for Miami. The Jets’ secondary has been torched week after week, although Parker’s lack of chemistry with Tua presents some downside that makes him more of a tournament play than a cash-game target.
Darius Slayton ($4,900): The definition of boom-or-bust this season, Darius Slayton has three games with 90+ yards and three with under 35 yards. However, he gets to face the Bengals this week, which allows the 7th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Cincinnati’s pass rush has been nonexistent, so Daniel Jones will have time to push the ball downfield, and the Bengals’ secondary projects as being even worse with significant injuries to key players. Slayton has scored 10+ PPR points in three of his last five games, and while he’s not someone you should rely on for cash games, he has clear top-15 upside. At this price tag, that makes him one of my favorite tournament targets.
Other wide receivers to consider: Julio Jones ($6,500), Robert Woods ($5,800) Antonio Brown ($5,700), Cole Beasley ($5,500), Curtis Samuel ($5,100), Mike Williams ($5,000), Nelson Agholor ($4,900), Corey Davis ($4,900), Breshad Perriman ($4,200), Keelan Cole ($3,600), Denzel Mims ($3,500), Laviska Shenault ($3,300), Gabriel Davis ($3,000)
Wide receivers I’m selling: Diontae Johnson ($6,200), Chase Claypool ($6,100), Deebo Samuel ($5,700), Russell Gage ($4,800), Willie Snead IV ($4,300), Zach Pascal ($4,100), Damiere Byrd ($4,100), Sammy Watkins ($4,700), Marquise Brown ($4,700), Rashad Higgins ($4,700), Richie James ($3,500), Dwayne Harris ($3,000), Scotty Miller ($3,000)
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,000): There’s a case to be made for Kelce to be the fantasy MVP this season, and after a game-winning touchdown against the Raiders, he topped 24 PPR points for the third straight week. The fact that there’s a complete lack of reliable tight end options after the top tier makes Kelce an even more enticing option. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five weeks as their secondary has taken a step back, and Kelce is the most talented and most reliable weapon at his position. The high price tag doesn’t bother me, and he has a great shot to top 100 yards for the fourth-straight game this week.
Darren Waller ($6,000): Outside of Kelce, Darren Waller has been the best fantasy option at tight end week after week, and he proved that again in his last game as he finished with 7 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs for a 21.8-point PPR finish. This week, he has a beautiful matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Falcons have done better against the position as of late, but allowing five top-10 finishes at the position through the first six weeks makes this still a great matchup. I love Derek Carr this week, and he and Waller could turn into a phenomenal stack for both tournaments and cash games.
Eric Ebron ($4,100): With 5+ targets in each of his last five games, Eric Ebron represents a rarity at the tight end position – consistency. He has finished with 11+ PPR points in four of five games over that span and could be in line for even more of a target share with JuJu Smith-Schuster out this week. Ebron caught 4 balls for 48 yards and a touchdown the last time these teams met. Ebron has also scored three touchdowns over the past four weeks. The Ravens’ defense has been most beatable against tight ends as they’re middle-of-the-pack against that position group, and Ebron provides a strong enough baseline to make it worth his price.
Jordan Reed ($3,600): We’re running it back with Jordan Reed as a punt option at tight end after he finished with 5 catches for 62 yards and 11.2 PPR points prior to the 49ers’ bye week. With Deebo Samuel matched up with Jalen Ramsey and Brandon Aiyuk likely out this week, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Reed lead the team in targets this week. He does have a significant downside as I expect Aaron Donald and the Rams’ pass rush to terrorize Nick Mullens, but I like his upside enough to make him a strong target in tournaments. However, in cash games, I’d rather punt the position and roll with Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert, or one of the Colts’ tight ends.
Other tight ends to consider: Mark Andrews ($5,200), Hunter Henry ($4,800), Evan Engram ($4,500), Rob Gronkowski ($4,400), Hayden Hurst ($3,900), Austin Hooper ($3,800), Trey Burton ($3,200), Irv Smith Jr. ($3,100), Kyle Rudolph ($2,800), Mo-Alie Cox ($2,700), Tyler Eifert ($2,600)
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Rams ($3,700): The Rams’ defense has scored the 7th-most fantasy points per game behind an elite front seven that has allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards per attempt and has 32 sacks this season, tied for the third-most in the NFL. This week, they face the Niners, who are set to be without lockdown left tackle Trent Williams, as well as two of their top interior linemen in Weston Richburg and Ben Garland. With Nick Mullens under center, the Rams should be able to force a couple of turnovers, and a defensive touchdown is not out of the question. The fact that the Niners have scored under 20 points in each of their past two games makes this a great play, as well.
New York Giants ($3,200): The Giants’ defense has quietly been stout all season, particularly in the front seven, where they rank top ten in sacks per game and in rushing yards per attempt allowed. The Bengals’ offensive line started the year as one of the league’s worst and has only gotten worse due to injuries – they had allowed Joe Burrow to be sacked 3.6 times per game, the second-most in the NFL prior to his devastating season-long injury. The Bengals are expected to start Brandon Allen this week, a guy who threw just 3 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in 3 games with the Broncos last season. I’m expecting the Giants to dominate defensively here and generate some fantasy production.
Denver Broncos ($2,200): The Saints have been playing some great offense as of late, but they’re a matchup to target with Taysom Hill under center. The Falcons managed 5 fantasy points last week despite having one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Broncos still have a very strong defense across the board, especially after getting a couple of players back from injury, and they finished with 12 fantasy points against the Dolphins last week. Denver provides a solid baseline, and at this low price tag, they’re a defense I’m looking to target in cash lineups if you’re looking to punt the position. Going $2,000 cheaper at DST can make a massive difference for the rest of your lineup.
Other DSTs to consider: Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,200), New Orleans Saints ($3,800), Cleveland Browns ($3,100), Arizona Cardinals ($2,900), Kansas City Chiefs ($2,700), Cincinnati Bengals ($2,500)
Sample Lineups
One of my favorite strategies to use for DFS has quickly become game stacks. By loading up on players from the same game, you can reduce variability in your lineup and take hold of some of the highest-scoring games on the week that will guarantee you fantasy production. I’ll start off my sample lineups with a few GPP game stacks for some of my favorite games on the week and then jump into some cash game lineups where game stacking is less important and overall production is king as you look to finish in the top half of your pool.
Lineup #1: GPP Game Stack, Panthers @ Vikings
QB: Teddy Bridgewater $6,300
RB: Dalvin Cook $9,500
RB: James Robinson $6,300
WR: Justin Jefferson $6,300
WR: D.J. Moore $6,200
WR: Denzel Mims $3,500
TE: Jordan Reed $3,600
FLEX: Wayne Gallman $5,000
DST: New York Giants $3,200
Lineup #2: GPP Game Stack, Raiders @ Falcons
QB: Derek Carr $5,700
RB: Derrick Henry $7,900
RB: Jonathan Taylor $5,900
WR: Calvin Ridley $7,100
WR: DeVante Parker $5,900
WR: Nelson Agholor $4,900
TE: Darren Waller $6,000
FLEX: Laviska Shenault Jr. $3,300
DST: Cleveland Browns $3,100
Lineup #3: GPP Game Stack, Chiefs @ Buccaneers
QB: Tom Brady $6,600
RB: Nick Chubb $7,100
RB: Brian Hill $4,000
WR: Tyreek Hill $7,800
WR: Mike Evans $6,100
WR: Chris Godwin $6,000
TE: Tyler Eifert $2,600
FLEX: Mike Evans $6,100
DST: Los Angeles Rams $3,700
Lineup #4: GPP Game Stack, Chargers @ Bills
QB: Justin Herbert $7,200
RB: James Robinson $6,300
RB: Kareem Hunt $5,600
WR: Keenan Allen $8,000
WR: Stefon Diggs $7,600
WR: Cole Beasley $5,500
TE: Anthony Firkser $2,600
FLEX: Mike Williams $5,000
DST: Denver Broncos $2,200
Lineup #5: Cash
QB: Patrick Mahomes $8,000
RB: James Robinson $6,300
RB: Wayne Gallman $5,000
WR: Justin Jefferson $6,300
WR: Robert Woods $5,800
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. $5,000
TE: Travis Kelce $7,000
FLEX: Denzel Mims $3,500
DST: Cleveland Browns $3,100
Lineup #6: Cash
QB: Teddy Bridgewater $6,300
RB: Dalvin Cook $9,500
RB: Kareem Hunt $5,600
WR: Keenan Allen $8,000
WR: Cooper Kupp $6,400
WR: Corey Davis $4,900
TE: Kyle Rudolph $2,800
FLEX: Laviska Shenault Jr. $3,300
DST: New York Giants $3,200
