Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons Matchup 9/12/21

The reigning champions will welcome Atlanta to open up the 2018 season. This is a playoff rematch from last year, where Philadelphia won 15-10 in a low scoring game. Vegas is expecting a Philadelphia win this week, but by narrow margins. Given the two offenses, both team totals sit over 20 points, so projecting more points than the playoff game that totaled 25 points. The Eagles grade out as the better teams, and defensively is where they make their big gain.

Matchup

Game Spread Over/Under Moneyline Charts
Teams Team Rating Defense Rating Offense Rating Open Closing Open Closing Open Closing Line Moves
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles Eagles
70
72
68
+3.5 (-110)
+3.5 (-115)
46.5 pts
48.5 pts
+170
+155
line-movement
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons Falcons
69
65
73
-3.5 (-110)
-3.5 (-105)
-190
-180
46.5 pts
48.5 pts

Odds Comparison

Vegas Odds
Moneyline +170 -190
Spread +4 -4
Totals 22 26
Win Probability 35% 65%
Over/Under
Over/Under 48
Over/Under History
Over/Under Home Away Grass Turf
8-8-0 3-5-0 5-3-0 8-6-0 0-2-0
10-6-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 3-1-0 7-5-0
Line Overall Home Away Overall Home Away
36 or less 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
36.1 to 39 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
39.1 to 43 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
43.1 to 46 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
46.1 and over 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
Against the Spread(ATS) History
ATS Home Away Grass Turf
4-12-0 3-5-0 1-7-0 4-10-0 0-2-0
6-10-0 2-6-0 4-4-0 2-2-0 4-8-0
Line Overall Home Away Overall Home Away
-10.1 or More 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
-7 to -10 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
-3.1 to -6.9 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
-0.1 to -3 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
0 to 3 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
+3.1 to +6.9 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
+7 to +10 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
10.1 or more 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0

Bet Splits

Record Win % Cover Spread % Avg Point Totals
Away 1-7 12.5% 0 20.5
Underdog 2-7 22.2% 33.3 21.8
After Loss 2-8 20% 12.5 12.3
Record Win % Cover Spread % Avg Point Totals
Home 2-6 25% 25 26.1
Favorite 1-4 20% 20 24.6
After Loss 3-8 27.3% 31.2 18.1

Scoring

Offense Scoring (Home)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
21.2 2.1 8.2 2.5 8.4
26.1 5.2 8.6 5.1 7.1
Defense Scoring Allowed (Away)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
26.9 4.2 7.5 5.6 9.5
29.2 5 9 7 8.2
Offense Scoring (Away)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
20.5 5.6 4.6 4.8 5.5
23.4 6.1 7.8 3.6 5.9
Defense Scoring Allowed (Home)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
23 6 5.9 5.1 6
24.9 4.2 5 6.4 9.2

Last 5 Meetings

Game
Date Score Spread Over/Under Total Yds Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs Total Yds Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs
9/16/19 PHI 20 @ ATL 24 PHI -1 51 points 286 49 237 1 1 367 57 310 0 3
9/7/18 ATL 12 @ PHI 18 ATL -1 44.5 points 232 113 119 2 0 299 74 225 1 0
1/13/18 ATL 10 @ PHI 15 ATL -2 40 points 334 96 238 1 0 281 86 195 0 1

Philadelphia Eagles Last 5 Matchups

Game Opponent
Date Score Spread Over/Under Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs
1/4/21 PHI 14 vs WAS 20 WAS -4.0 43.5 points 216 118 98 2 0 248 103 145 0 2
12/27/20 PHI 17 @ DAL 37 PHI -3.0 49.5 points 477 151 326 1 1 513 151 362 1 3
12/20/20 PHI 26 @ ARI 33 PHI -6.0 49.5 points 422 117 305 1 3 526 103 423 1 3
12/13/20 PHI 24 vs NO 21 NO -8.0 42.5 points 413 246 167 2 1 358 96 262 1 2
12/6/20 PHI 16 @ GB 30 PHI -8.0 49.5 points 278 117 161 0 1 437 149 288 1 3

Atlanta Falcons Last 5 Matchups

Game Opponent
Date Score Spread Over/Under Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs
1/3/21 ATL 27 @ TB 44 TB -6.5 50.5 points 385 127 258 1 2 485 94 391 1 4
12/27/20 ATL 14 @ KC 17 ATL -10.5 53 points 367 90 277 0 2 395 117 278 0 2
12/20/20 ATL 27 vs TB 31 TB -6.5 48.5 points 369 37 332 0 3 416 51 365 2 2
12/13/20 ATL 17 @ LAC 20 49 points 319 70 249 0 2 345 105 240 0 2
12/6/20 ATL 16 vs NO 21 NO -3.0 45.5 points 332 70 262 0 1 424 207 217 1 2

Matchup Breakdown

The Falcons defensive rating is below 80, while the Eagles is sitting above 95. The Falcons did make moves on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, and we still also have no clue how Carson Wentz will perform in his first full speed game. Alshon Jeffery is also looking like a doubt for the start of the season. With an Over/Under of 46.5, we would not be surprised to see this one go the under. Given last year’s indicators of overs, the Eagles only hit it twice while at home, and Atlanta three times on the road. The Eagles did have an edge against the spread, going 11-5, and 7-3 at home overall. The Falcons played closer to .500 against the spread on the road, and a dead even 8-8 overall. Atlanta’s scoring did not drop off on the road, which can be the case with indoor teams. They averaged 25.8 points per game at home last year, and 24.3 on the road. The big notable home-road split goes to Philadelphia, who allowed just 14.7 points per game at home, compared to 20.9 on the road. We don’t have a huge track record of these two teams playing, as the playoff game is the only relevant game in the last few seasons.

If we get something closer to the playoff game, fantasy relevance will be rather low. Julio Jones of course is a must start every week, but a tough task against the Eagles secondary looms. Matt Ryan was held to under 200 passing yards, but the playoff home atmosphere is always a tough task to go against. If Wentz comes back shaky, and Jeffery is limited or absent, then the running game should carry a bulk of the workload. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz would also see sizable bumps in volume. The running game is up in the air this year, but a lot points towards Jay Ajayi gaining a good workload. Corey Clement and Darren Sproles will likely still work their way in. On the Falcons side of things, we know the running back situation is going to be a 60-40 split between Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Calvin Ridley is the highly touted rookie out of Alabama, and he should jump to the right wide receiver, but will have a tough matchup for his NFL debut. This should be a fun game to watch, but likely limited if you are watching for fantasy purposes. Expect these two teams to continue to be in the upper tier of the NFC.