Atlanta Falcons

4-9, 14th NFC South
at

12:20 am UTC, 9/7

40% Rain , Wind: 5 MPH

Philadelphia Eagles

6-7, 7th NFC East

12:20 am UTC, 9/7

40% Rain , Wind: 5 MPH

The reigning champions will welcome Atlanta to open up the 2018 season. This is a playoff rematch from last year, where Philadelphia won 15-10 in a low scoring game. Vegas is expecting a Philadelphia win this week, but by narrow margins. Given the two offenses, both team totals sit over 20 points, so projecting more points than the playoff game that totaled 25 points. The Eagles grade out as the better teams, and defensively is where they make their big gain.

Matchup

Game Spread Team Totals Over/Under Moneyline Charts
Game Team Rating Defense Rating Offense Rating Open Live Open Live Open Live Open Live Line Moves
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons Falcons
84
77
91
+3 (-115) -1 (-110) 21.8 22.8 46.5 pts 44.5 pts +145 -107 line-movement
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles Eagles
95
96
92
-3 (-105) +1 (-110) 24.8 21.8 -165 -103

Odds Comparison

Vegas vs. Lineups.com Odds
Vegas Lineups.com Difference Vegas Lineups.com Difference
Moneyline -107 -195 88 -103 +167 270
Spread -1 -7.1 6.1 +1 +7.1 6.1
Totals 22.8 28.2 5.4 21.8 21.1 0.7
Win Probability 50% 14% 50% 15%
Over/Under
Vegas Lineups.com Difference
Over/Under 44.5 49.3 4.8
Over/Under History
Over/Under Home Away Grass Turf
7-9-0 4-3-0 3-6-0 1-5-0 1-0-0
5-10-1 2-8-0 3-2-1 3-8-1 1-1-0
Line Overall Home Away Overall Home Away
36 or less 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
36.5 to 39 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1-0-0 1-0-0 0-0-0
39.5 to 43 0-2-0 0-0-0 0-2-0 4-3-0 3-2-0 1-1-0
43.5 to 46 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 4-1-0 3-1-0 1-0-0
46.5 and over 11-8-0 7-4-0 4-4-0 7-2-0 2-0-0 5-2-0
Against the Spread(ATS) History
ATS Home Away Grass Turf
8-8-0 4-3-0 4-5-0 2-4-0 1-0-0
11-5-0 7-3-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 0-2-0
Line Overall Home Away Overall Home Away
-10.5 or More 0-1-0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2-0-0 2-0-0 0-0-0
-7 to -10 1-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-0
-3.5 to -6.5 5-2-0 5-0-0 0-2-0 4-2-0 3-1-0 1-1-0
-0.5 to -3 3-4-0 1-2-0 2-2-0 2-0-0 0-0-0 2-0-0
0 to 3 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0 5-0-0 2-0-0 3-0-0
+3.5 to +6.5 2-1-0 0-0-0 2-1-0 2-2-0 1-1-0 1-1-0
+7 to +10 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0
10.5 or more 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0

Bet Splits

Record Win % Cover Spread % Avg Point Totals
Away 12-6 66.7% 66.7 26.1
Favorite 12-6 66.7% 50 24.8
After Loss 6-2 75% 16 7
Record Win % Cover Spread % Avg Point Totals
Home 15-3 83.3% 83.3 26.4
Underdog 7-1 87.5% 77.8 25.7
After Win 15-3 83.3% 59.1 24

Scoring

Offense Scoring (Home)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
25.8 4.3 7.6 5.9 8
25.8 6 8.3 5 6.5
Defense Scoring Allowed (Away)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
20.8 2.8 7.9 3.4 6.7
20.9 3.6 5.6 4.3 7
Offense Scoring (Away)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
24.3 6.1 6.4 5.8 6
29.1 6.8 10.9 5.4 6
Defense Scoring Allowed (Home)
Total 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
25.9 7.1 7.7 5.4 5.3
14.7 1.6 4.8 2.9 5.4

Last 5 Meetings

Game
Date Score Spread Over/Under Total Yds Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs Total Yds Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs
1/13/18 ATL 10 @ PHI 15 ATL -2 40 points 281 86 195 0 1 334 96 238 1 0

Atlanta Falcons Last 5 Matchups

Game Opponent
Date Score Spread Over/Under Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs
1/13/18 ATL 10 @ PHI 15 ATL -2.5 40 points 281 86 195 0 1 334 96 238 1 0
1/7/18 ATL 26 @ LAR 13 LAR -6.0 48 points 322 124 198 1 1 361 115 246 0 1
12/31/17 ATL 22 vs CAR 10 ATL -4.5 44.5 points 371 60 311 0 1 248 87 161 0 1
12/24/17 ATL 13 @ NO 23 NO -5.5 52 points 331 67 264 0 1 315 86 229 1 1
12/19/17 ATL 24 @ TB 21 ATL -7.0 49.5 points 410 201 209 2 1 373 84 289 0 3

Philadelphia Eagles Last 5 Matchups

Game Opponent
Date Score Spread Over/Under Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs Total Rush Yds Pass Yds Rush TDs Pass TDs
2/4/18 PHI 41 @ NE 33 NE -4.5 49 points 538 164 374 1 4 613 113 500 1 3
1/21/18 PHI 38 vs MIN 7 MIN -3.0 39 points 456 110 346 1 3 333 70 263 0 1
1/13/18 PHI 15 vs ATL 10 ATL -2.5 40 points 334 96 238 1 0 281 86 195 0 1
12/31/17 PHI 0 vs DAL 6 DAL -3.5 41 points 219 70 149 0 0 301 129 172 0 1
12/26/17 PHI 19 vs OAK 10 PHI -10.0 46 points 216 78 138 0 1 274 137 137 0 1

Matchup Breakdown

The Falcons defensive rating is below 80, while the Eagles is sitting above 95. The Falcons did make moves on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, and we still also have no clue how Carson Wentz will perform in his first full speed game. Alshon Jeffery is also looking like a doubt for the start of the season. With an Over/Under of 46.5, we would not be surprised to see this one go the under. Given last year’s indicators of overs, the Eagles only hit it twice while at home, and Atlanta three times on the road. The Eagles did have an edge against the spread, going 11-5, and 7-3 at home overall. The Falcons played closer to .500 against the spread on the road, and a dead even 8-8 overall. Atlanta’s scoring did not drop off on the road, which can be the case with indoor teams. They averaged 25.8 points per game at home last year, and 24.3 on the road. The big notable home-road split goes to Philadelphia, who allowed just 14.7 points per game at home, compared to 20.9 on the road. We don’t have a huge track record of these two teams playing, as the playoff game is the only relevant game in the last few seasons.

If we get something closer to the playoff game, fantasy relevance will be rather low. Julio Jones of course is a must start every week, but a tough task against the Eagles secondary looms. Matt Ryan was held to under 200 passing yards, but the playoff home atmosphere is always a tough task to go against. If Wentz comes back shaky, and Jeffery is limited or absent, then the running game should carry a bulk of the workload. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz would also see sizable bumps in volume. The running game is up in the air this year, but a lot points towards Jay Ajayi gaining a good workload. Corey Clement and Darren Sproles will likely still work their way in. On the Falcons side of things, we know the running back situation is going to be a 60-40 split between Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Calvin Ridley is the highly touted rookie out of Alabama, and he should jump to the right wide receiver, but will have a tough matchup for his NFL debut. This should be a fun game to watch, but likely limited if you are watching for fantasy purposes. Expect these two teams to continue to be in the upper tier of the NFC.