Any NHL player can be evaluated in a vacuum, both with traditional stats like goals, assists and plus/minus and with more modern metrics like Corsi, Fenwick, PDO and others. Those statistics can give you a pretty accurate idea of a player’s value, both in real life and in fantasy, especially over the course of an entire season. However, to truly capture a player’s impact on a given game, it’s necessary to know where that player fits in within his team’s structure and game plan. In other words, you need to understand on what lines that player is being deployed. Line combinations are crucial to properly valuing players, and this is especially true for daily fantasy.
Any NHL player can be evaluated in a vacuum, both with traditional stats like goals, assists and plus/minus and with more modern metrics like Corsi, Fenwick, PDO and others. Those statistics can give you a pretty accurate idea of a player’s value, both in real life and in fantasy, especially over the course of an entire season. However, to truly capture a player’s impact on a given game, it’s necessary to know where that player fits in within his team’s structure and game plan. In other words, you need to understand on what lines that player is being deployed. Line combinations are crucial to properly valuing players, and this is especially true for daily fantasy.
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NHL teams universally deploy 4 lines for forwards, each of which traditionally has a slightly different role, and are usually divided by talent levels and productivity. The first line generally has the most talented offensive players on the team, and is responsible for bulk of that team’s scoring. A first line also receives the most ice time. The second line is another offensive-minded line, made up of the next best offensive forwards. Teams with multiple superstar players face the choice of either stacking their top line or splitting their stars between the first and second lines. That kind of choice can vary from game to game.
The idea behind the classic third line is to match up against an opponent’s top line and frustrate them defensively. The fourth line is traditionally referred to as the energy line, and it receives the least ice time and tends to feature the least skilled forwards on the team. In years past, the fourth line is where low-skilled enforcers would play, though this is changing as the league grows away from that aspect of the game. In addition to the four-line structure, teams feature lines that play on the penalty and to kill opposing penalties. Generally, the standout forwards from the first and second lines play on the power play lines, and gritty third liners can often feature on penalty kill lines.
A demotion from the first to the third line, or from the second to the fourth line, likely means a significant drop-off in ice time for a player. This is almost always going to have an impact on daily fantasy stats. And the converse is true: If a player is promoted to a higher line, chances are his value has now improved by more ice time.
Beyond where a player is being slotted into his team’s four lines, be cognizant of how much usage a player gets on the power play, and to a lesser extent the penalty kill. Power play minutes are pure gold, as over 20% of all goals are scored on the power play. Often daily fantasy leagues offer a bonus for any goals or assists scored while shorthanded, so penalty kill minutes can be a minor bonus. But the main point is that players on power play lines should be valued appropriately for their greater likelihood to generate scoring.
The above is a solid guide to how to consider line combinations when trying to value players for daily fantasy hockey, but there’s one other consideration if you’re looking to properly judge players and their lines. NHL coaches aren’t just throwing their lines out on the ice in 1-2-3-4 order. They’re deploying them for specific reasons and in specific circumstances, and that strategy has a big impact on how much offense a given line or player produces. Two major factors are Quality of Competition and Offensive/Defensive Zone Deployment. Simply put, some players and lines tend to be put on the ice against the opposing team’s best players, and some players and lines tend to start their shifts more in either the offensive or defensive zones.
All of these metrics are tracked and can be accessed on a number of NHL stats websites, and paying proper attention to QoC (Quality of Competition) and OZ% (Offensive Zone Deployment Percentage) can help you recognize which players and lines are being put in the position to score more or fewer points than their raw talent would otherwise dictate.
To sum it all up, the ideal player for daily fantasy hockey plays on the first line and the top power play line, is paired with talented linemates, gets playing time against weaker opponent lines, and is generally deployed for offensive zone starts to line shifts. The established stars in these situations are known quantities, and you’ll have to pay a premium for them. But keep your eyes open for changes in the usage patterns for players as the season progresses. A line shuffle or change in the OZ% for a player can mean that a lesser-valued player can suddenly begin to put up points like a top-tier star.
We will often see teams run their morning skates before a game, and lines will be announced by beat writers or the team itself. This will give us an indication of what the lines will be for the upcoming game. Throughout a season lines will change, but there will be some consistent stretches for the top lines. There are a few different reasons why teams will change their lines throughout the season. Coaches will often try to change things on the fly if the offense is in a rut. Injuries and roster changes will often cause a coach to make changes to the lines.
You might see a change to move a player off the top line if the second line is in need of some offense. Splitting up superstars is not uncommon as a way of not loading up on one line. Coaches will also change lines up if they are struggling offensively. Over the course of a long season, shuffling of the lines is necessary. We also often see it with a power play line, as a struggling unit will require quick action in changing the lines.
In a hard-hitting sport like hockey, there are going to be some injuries. An injury is going to require a coach to shuffle some lines around. Because that player is out, it doesn’t mean the replacing player goes right into that line. A coach might take a third line player and move him up to line two or wherever the position is that needs to be replaced. If there is a trade, expect a big shift in line chemistry. It might take the coach a few guesses to get things right among the new teammates.
There is definitely a correlation between fantasy points and the top lines in hockey. As mentioned above, lines are going to impact minutes. There will be a trickle down effect, as the top line will get the most minutes while the fourth line is going to get the least amount of minutes. Keep in mind that the score of a game can dictate the amount of minutes a line sees. That is why knowing the lines ahead of time is important for putting together DFS lineups. Being aware of the power play lines is also ideal, as those players will get plenty more scoring opportunities.
You can find value by keeping an eye on these lines, as coaches will make those changes throughout the season. Players that are moved up to the second or first line provide great value as they are likely going to be cheap based on their usual line, but sites will not have time to adjust to the salary. That means you can get a bargain price on a player receiving a higher amount of minutes with better linemates. A player is going to have more chances for assists and goals playing with a better set of offensive players.
Players on the top line and the power play line are going to be big fantasy options. In most cases, those players will be more expensive because the minutes and production are a lot higher. Think of lines like starting lineups in other sports. Pairing linemates for offensive upside is also something to consider. If player gets a goal and you have his teammate who sets him up with the assist, you are going to raise your potential for fantasy points.
Also known as special teams lines, both power play and penalty killing lines are important for success in the NHL. When you have a power play you are up a player, or possibly even two, while penalty killing means you are down at least one player. Being able to capitalize on the power play is a recipe for success. The power play lines are going to feature the more talented offensive players on the team. When they struggle, a coach will tend to change things up. He will often ride a hot hand if a player is on a hot streak and the coach wants to use him on the power play. Injuries and roster moves will also have an impact on special teams lines.
Penalty killing lines are going to feature more defensive players and don’t have much fantasy value outside of some potential blocked shots and a chance at a short-handed goal. Just like the power play lines, there are going to be two pairings that are going to change in and out. Because a penalty kill is going to be two or four minutes, teams will often change a few times throughout the penalty. Teams need to be strong on the penalty kill, especially if they are prone to a lot of penalties.
Lines are broken down by forwards and defensemen. There are three defensive lines and four forward lines that will rotate throughout a hockey game. Teams will also have specific lines for a power play or penalty kill.
A coach will be the one signaling line changes from the bench. Lines will often change when play is stopped or if the puck is in the opposing zone and there's time for a change.
Coaches will change lines based on matchups for a specific game to better plan for an opponent. If a line is struggling, a coach might switch lines up to try and jumpstart things on the offensive side or help a struggling player.
There are four forward lines on an NHL team, usually leaning on the top players for the number one line and so on. There are also three defensive lines, which are pairs of two players.
On average, shift changes will be every 45 to 60 seconds. Shifts can be cut shorter and go longer at times, but on average expect no more than a minute on the ice. Power play and penalty-killing shifts might go on longer.
When there is a stoppage in play, teams will often change lines. A home team has the advantage of having the last change, so after the away team makes a line change, the home team can see what players are on the ice and make a decision.
NHL line combinations are an essential part of the game, as they determine everything from time on the ice to scoring opportunities. These line combinations are subject to consistent change, as coaches will move different players around for the best possible outcome. Injuries can also impact line combos. Being aware of these shifting lines is vital to sports wagering, as a bettor can strategize around stronger lines and special teams units.
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