NFL Daily Fantasy (DFS) Projections 2025-26
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Since you have a finite amount of money to spend on your roster every week in DFS, it's all about getting the most value with your lineup. The salary of every player must be considered alongside their fantasy points to determine the best value plays. Within the projections page, you're be able to sort based on each matchup or find a game stack to lock in with a high total. If you're looking at cash games, you'll want consistent players that bring some safety to your lineup. But if you're focusing on tournaments, you can find low ownership through lower totals and tough matchups and look at those boom-or-bust players. You may also want to look at a few of the top players on the waiver wire to make sure the available players aren't projected for a better performance than someone on your roster.
Daily
Since you have a finite amount of money to spend on your roster every week in DFS, it's all about getting the most value with your lineup. The salary of every player must be considered alongside their fantasy points to determine the best value plays. Within the projections page, you're be able to sort based on each matchup or find a game stack to lock in with a high total. If you're looking at cash games, you'll want consistent players that bring some safety to your lineup. But if you're focusing on tournaments, you can find low ownership through lower totals and tough matchups and look at those boom-or-bust players. You may also want to look at a few of the top players on the waiver wire to make sure the available players aren't projected for a better performance than someone on your roster.
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FanDuel vs. DraftKings Scoring Systems
When looking at projections, you'll want to know the scoring system and how they play into these projections. You might be wondering why a player is projected for 16 fantasy points on DraftKings compared to just 11 on FanDuel? One of the primary reasons for a big swing in projections is the PPR scoring on DraftKings. While .5 to 1 might not seem like a big difference, it can be. If tha player catches eight passes for 80 yards, he'll have 16 DraftKings points and 12 on FanDuel. DraftKings also has bonuses for yardage marks. If a player has 100 yards or more rushing or receiving, they'll get a bonus. If a quarterback throws for 300 yards or more, they'll get a bonus as well. FanDuel does not offer up these bonuses.
Comparing Salaries Between Sites
One of the other significant things to look for between the two sites is salary differences. FanDuel has generally had a looser salary system compared to DraftKings, who has made lineup building a bit tighter. You can play both to see what your preference is. Sites usually put out their salaries on Sunday night for the next week. Each site will have its own method of evaluating what a salary will be, which can lead to some major discrepancies. For example, a player might be the 4th highest priced quarterback on DraftKings, but the 10th highest priced quarterback on FanDuel. With injuries occurring so frequently, one site might adjust quicker than the other to price up the backup player compared to the other site. This means that the backup in question will be a more substantial value on one site and not as strong of a play on the other. It's good to compare salaries between the sites and use if for your research prep for the week.
Dealing With Projection Changes
Once the current week is underway, projections will be put out to reflect whatever news is fresh from the weekend. However, we do not get injury updates until midway through the week, when you start to see the projections regulate. Injuries are the main reason projections can change throughout the week. If a starting running back is listed as doubtful for the week, projections will reflect that his backup is getting an extra workload and a higher fantasy projection. But if the starter manages to get healthy, the backup's projection numbers will go down, and the starter's will bounce back up.
Injuries can also derail a whole team. Some weeks, you might see a quarterback listed as questionable or even doubtful, and the offense will see a drop off in fantasy projections. This also means the opposing defense might get a bump in their projections. Most weekly news will come out towards the end of the week, and projections will be updating more frequently as Friday hits before the Sunday slate. This is why it's best to give it some time before you build those lineups. You can also set lineups early in the week and adjust on the fly as more news comes out.
Floor, Ceiling, & Consistency
A player's performance can be summed up in this area throughout a season. A player's floor is very telling of how safe they are. A player with a high floor means they're expected to play consistently throughout the season. These types of players are vital for building safer lineups to minimize risk. As far as a ceiling goes, this is where you see the potential outcome each player has for fantasy points. Some players are just not used enough to have a high ceiling or are utilized in minimal roles that don't create enough fantasy points. Players with high volume or that are involved in more downfield plays have a higher ceiling. There are also players who simply have a high floor and ceiling, making them great all-around selections.
Consistency stats show how many times a player has hit their projection over the last ten games. This gives you a more in-depth look at each player. If someone is projected for 15 fantasy points and they have an 80% consistency rating for that mark, then they're a reliable option. If they are at a 30% consistency rating, then the odds are against them for hitting that mark for the week. This is an excellent number to look at when building lineups each week, as consistency ratings will update with the projections.
Building Cash Game Lineups
For cash games in DFS, more than 40% of the field wins. The prizes are often doubling up your money, where all you need to do is beat 50% of the field compared to a tournament where you are trying to beat out the entire field. Cash games generally mean you're going to be building a lineup with safer players. This is where finding high floor and high consistency numbers come into play. You might want to look for a player that sees many
When looking at other areas of this page, the totals and spreads can come into play. If a game has an over/under 48+ points, you are looking at what Vegas projects to be a high scoring game. The spread is also an excellent projection of the game script. If Vegas is projecting the a team to win by ten, it can be a positive game flow for the running backs to get more touches. If a team is projected to trail, that can mean more opportunities for the passing game. The matchup will also play a factor in your decision making as you want to target the easier defenses. For ownership purposes in tournaments, you might take more risks against challenging opponents.
Building Tournament (GPP) Lineups
In tournaments, you are competing against an entire field to try and finish in the top spot. This means taking more risk and differing from what might be popular that week. Now, this isn't to say go build a lineup of 2% owned players. It means you should work in some contrarian plays or find ways to correlate for upside. Some great ways to do that is by pairing players together from the same team, especially quarterbacks and wide receivers or tight ends.
FAQ
- Why Do Projections Differ Between Sites?
- What Does Floor Mean?
- What Does Ceiling Mean?
- What Is DvP?
- Why Do Projections Change?
Projections will be different between sites because each DFS platform has its own scoring system. DraftKings uses one point per reception and has added bonuses while FanDuel has no bonuses and uses .5 points per reception.
When you hear the term floor, it's referring to what tends to be the average amount of fantasy points a player puts up each week. A player with a high floor means they're a safer fantasy player than someone with a lower floor.
A player's ceiling is the highest amount of fantasy points they can reach. We calculate this with historical data. A vertical threat wide receiver could have the potential for a total of 25 fantasy points, where another could have a ceiling of just 15.
DvP stands for defense vs. position. This is a rank that measures how well teams defend specific positions on the field. A defense can rank 4th against wide receivers but rank 27th against tight ends.
Projections can change for a number of reasons throughout the week, but the number one reason is injuries. Injuries can have an effect on the entire team, as you'll need to analyze the backups and offensive efficiency. Weather and roster moves can cause changes as well.
Daily fantasy sports is available throughout most of the United States. This gives fans of different sports an excellent opportunity to add some excitement to each matchup. The legal age is 18 and up for daily fantasy sports in most of the country.
While DFS apps are prevalent in the U.S., online casinos are only legal in a handful of states. However, big bonuses are available with the DFS signup bonuses in those areas. Many first-time iGaming users sign up with the DraftKings Casino Promo Code for big bonuses as they start playing real money casino games.