Maryland vs. Richmond: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/25/21)
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Maryland vs. Richmond Betting Odds
Maryland and Richmond will face off in the Baha Mar Bahamas Championship in Nassau on Turkey Day, with an early-season MTE title on the line.
Maryland has had a tough start to the season, as its 4-1 record is paired with a 1-4 against the spread (ATS) record and a loss to George Mason. However, this talented roster is still meshing.
Meanwhile, Richmond continues to be an offensive force in the A-10. But it faced two KenPom top-100 teams this season and lost both by a combined 14 points. This could be a long night for Richmond.
However, Vegas has set this line at just Maryland -1.5, indicating this game should be tighter than expected.
Maryland Terrapins Odds
Maryland has such a great roster.
Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala highlight an electric back-court, while newcomer Qudus Wahab compliments a frontcourt rotation of Donta Scott and Julian Reese.
So, why hasn’t it come together for Maryland yet?
Shooting, to start. The Terps have shot just 25.4% from deep through its first five games, a stat that ranks 326th in the country. Maryland doesn’t take a lot of 3s, however, but their inability to make them has lagged on their overall offensive statistics.
Defensively, Maryland’s played terrible perimeter defense. They’re allowing opponents to shoot over 36% from 3, allowing 1.045 points per possession in spot-up situations (10th percentile), and forcing the 276th most turnovers (16.5%).
While you could expect some 3-point regression for Maryland, on both the offensive and defensive ends, it still doesn’t make up for the fact that both Russell and Ayala have posted an ORtg below 100.
So, Mark Turgeon has work to do. But there’s too much talent for the Terps to play this poorly.
Richmond Spiders Odds
The Atlantic-10 is such an interesting, fun league. The Spiders are a big reason why.
Richmond’s offense is electric, as it finished second in the conference in offensive efficiency last season. The Spiders scored over 75 points per game last year and had five players average double digits.
Well, I’d watch out A-10, because Chris Mooney returns all five of those scorers. Moreover, Richmond lost just one player from last year’s team, ranking 35th in experience (2.49 years on average).
The returning production is the main reason why the Spiders are the consensus No. 2 pick in the conference.
It starts with Jacob Gilyard. He’s a 5-foot-9, 160-pound super senior whose lightning quick on the offensive end and sneakily devastating on the defensive end. He averaged 12 points and five assists per game last year while adding 3.5 steals per game.
Gilyard is also a machine. He played the third-most minutes of any player in college basketball last season, and he has played 92.5% of Richmond’s minutes so far this year. He’s scored double-digits thrice, dished out at least six assists in every game, and has already recorded 18 steals.
Gilyard is a big reason the Spiders rank 21st in eFG% (57.8%) and 27th in turnover rate (14.8%), but his teammates need to help on the defensive end.
So far, Richmond ranks 270th in defensive eFG% (53%) and 114th in overall defensive efficiency. It’s allowed over 70 points in three games this season, although against some decent offensive opposition.
The key will be for Grant Golden to step up on the interior. He’s been a very lackadaisical rim protector the past two seasons, and he has allowed over 1.00 points per possession in half-court sets so far this season. If Golden turns into an average defender, that’ll up the Spiders’ ceiling considerably.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Richmond +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Maryland has struggled against more experienced mid-majors this season. The Terps failed to cover against Vermont, who ranks third in average experience, and Maryland lost outright to George Mason, who ranks in the top-100 in average experience.
I believe Richmond’s continuity and age will prove deadly in this game. The Spiders are going to play with great cohesion, specifically on the offensive end, and they’ll likely be more efficient than the young Terps will be.
