San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 58 NFL Player Props & Picks (02/11/24)

Get San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs player prop picks & odds for the (02/11/24) Super Bowl matchup.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks

The Super Bowl 58 showdown featuring the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs kicks off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. EST in Las Vegas. The Chiefs are currently a +2.5 underdog and +110 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47.5. Expect a running back duel between Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco while Travis Kelce looks to haul in a touchdown, all giving value as player props for this San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup.

Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards

After getting bottled up for a majority of the NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions, Christian McCaffrey is now back in a position to run wild against a much weaker Chiefs front seven. Unlike the Lions who excelled at stuffing the run, the Chiefs rank a lowly 27th in Def Rush DVOA, 16th in Def Rush Success Rate, 28th in Def Rush EPA and 25th in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

That bodes well for McCaffrey’s chances of churning out sizable gains at a time as the 49ers have dominated on the ground this year. San Francisco comes into the contest ranked second in Rush DVOA, first in Rush Success Rate, first in Rush EPA and second in Adjusted Line Yards.

Establishing the run early not only is the 49ers best chance for success against the Chiefs, but it also keeps Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field while they dominate time of possession. By limiting the number of possessions on the Chiefs end, that forces Mahomes to capitalize on their minimal opportunities which is a tough feat against one of the best defenses in the league.

Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Rush Attempts

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned prop, McCaffrey should be heavily featured in the 49ers offense should they want to maximize their chances of winning the Super Bowl. The advantages alone make it worth abusing the run, as well as minimizing turnover worthy plays through the air and dominating time of possession.

It also bodes well for his chances of cashing these props as the 49ers face a very stout Chiefs secondary. They have played at a high rate all season long, coming into the Super Bowl ranked fifth in Def Pass DVOA, third in Def Pass EPA and second in Def Pass Success Rate. With a secondary capable of giving Brock Purdy fits, expect the 49ers to revert to a heavy dose of the run in order to sustain downfield success.

Isiah Pacheco Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

Like Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco is also in a good position to succeed as he takes on a very weak 49ers front seven. San Francisco’s defense mirrors that of the Chiefs as they field an elite coverage unit yet struggle to stop the run. The 49ers come into the contest ranked 15th in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush Success Rate and 26th in Def Rush EPA.

Their front four fares far better at stuffing the run than the Chiefs defensive line, ranking 10th in Def Adjusted Line Yards, yet the 49ers scheme of anchoring their linebackers in coverage leaves them prone to getting burned through the middle. Isiah Pacheco may look funny while running, but he is a powerful runner who can deal damage up the middle against a stretched-out 49ers linebacking unit.

Especially with the second level of the defense having to respect Mahomes and the Chiefs vaunted pass attack. While their metrics have regressed from years past, a healthy Kelce and emerging Rashee Rice is still more than enough to strike fear in any defense. Mahomes has also been more aggressive in his efforts of taking off and running when in danger, potentially forcing their outside linebackers to anchor and spy.

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown

Just when everybody thought Kelce was starting to regress due to an underwhelming regular season by his standards, he reminded the league that he is still the best tight end in football by torching the Ravens secondary. He finished the AFC Championship Game hauling in 11 receptions for 116 yards and one touchdown.

He faces another tough test against the 49ers secondary, yet his volume alone still makes him valuable enough to wager on scoring a touchdown. Especially at plus odds, getting him as high as +105 in some books. When in the red zone, expect Kelce to exploit gaps in coverage in rollouts and give Mahomes a high-quality target in the end zone to combat against a 49ers secondary who ranks top-7 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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